tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-66164452073432941262009-02-20T15:48:57.957-08:00NLhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03032666617375081541noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616445207343294126.post-26149319001100405662007-05-19T16:46:00.000-07:002007-05-19T18:06:04.286-07:00<p>Some calculations based on the 2008 polls published thus far (<a href="http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/democratic_presidential_nomination-191.html#polls">from RCP</a>) are below the fold.</p><br /><p>Crossposted at <a href="http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/5/19/194352/968">Daily Kos</a>.</p><br /><br />----------<br /><br /><p><blockquote>A) Polls that asked both the "with Gore" and "without Gore" questions:</p><br /><p>1. <blockquote><a href="http://www.foxnews.com/projects/pdf/051707_release_web.pdf">FNOD, 5/15-16</a></p><br /><p>With Gore:</p><br /><p>Clinton: 35%<br><br />Obama: 20<br><br />Gore: 13<br><br />Edwards: 13<br><br />Richardson: 4</p><br /><p>Clinton-Obama Margin: 15</p><br /><p>Without Gore (with shifts in parentheses):</p><br /><p>Clinton: 39% (+4)<br><br />Obama: 23 (+3)<br><br />Edwards: 15 (+2)<br><br />Richardson: 4 (0)</p><br /><p>Clinton-Obama Margin: 16</p><br /><p>Interesting "without Clinton" results:<br><br />Obama: 34 (+14)<br><br />Gore: 23 (+10)<br><br />Edwards: 16 (+3)<br><br />Richardson: 5 (+1)<br><br />(which shows that Obama and Gore have the best capacity to pull support from Hillary)<br><br /></blockquote></p><br /><p>2. <blockquote><a href="http://www.cookpolitical.com/races/report_pdfs/2007poll_tl_may11.pdf">Cook/RT, 5/11-13</a>:</p><br /><p>With Gore:</p><br /><p>Clinton: 32%<br><br />Obama: 24<br><br />Gore: 10<br><br />Edwards: 13<br><br />Richardson: 3</p><br /><p>Clinton-Obama Margin: 8</p><br /><p>Without Gore (with shifts in parentheses):</p><br /><p>Clinton: 40% (+8)<br><br />Obama: 25 (+1)<br><br />Edwards: 13 (0)<br><br />Richardson: 2 (-1)</p><br /><p>Clinton-Obama Margin: 15<br><br /></blockquote></p><br /><p>3. <blockquote><a href="http://i.a.cnn.net/cnn/2007/images/05/07/rel6c.pdf">CNN/OR 5/4-6</a><br><br />With Gore:</p><br /><p>Clinton: 38%<br><br />Obama: 24<br><br />Gore: 12<br><br />Edwards: 12<br><br />Richardson: 5</p><br /><p>Clinton-Obama Margin: 14</p><br /><p>Without Gore (with shifts in parentheses):</p><br /><p>Clinton: 41% (+3)<br><br />Obama: 27 (+3)<br><br />Edwards: 14 (+2)<br><br />Richardson: 6 (+1)</p><br /><p>Clinton-Obama Margin: 14<br><br /></blockquote></p><br /><p>4. <blockquote><br><br /><a href="http://www.usatoday.com/news/polls/tables/live/2007-05-07-poll.htm">USA Today</a></p><br /><p>With Gore:</p><br /><p>Clinton: 38%<br><br />Obama: 23<br><br />Gore: 14<br><br />Edwards: 12<br><br />Richardson: 2</p><br /><p>Clinton-Obama Margin: 15</p><br /><p>Without Gore (with shifts in parentheses):</p><br /><p>Clinton: 45% (+7)<br><br />Obama: 27 (+4)<br><br />Edwards: 14 (+2)<br><br />Richardson: 3 (+1)</p><br /><p>Clinton-Obama Margin: 18<br><br /></blockquote></p><br /><p><b>Averages</b>:</p><br /><p>With Gore:</p><br /><p>Clinton: 35.75%<br><br />Obama: 22.75<br><br />Gore: 12.25<br><br />Edwards: 12.5<br><br />Richardson: 3.5</p><br /><p>Clinton-Obama Margin: 13<br><br />Also, Obama+Gore = 35%</p><br /><p>Without Gore (with shifts in parentheses):</p><br /><p>Clinton: 41.25% (+5.5)<br><br />Obama: 27 (+2.75)<br><br />Edwards: 14 (+1.5)<br><br />Richardson: 3 (+0.25)</p><br /><p>Clinton-Obama Margin: 14.25</p><br /><p></blockquote></p><br /><p><blockquote><br><br />B. Polls that asked or reported only the "without Gore" question:</p><br /><p>1. <blockquote><a href="http://americanresearchgroup.com/">ARG, 5/9-12</a></p><br /><p>Clinton: 39%<br><br />Obama: 22<br><br />Edwards: 19<br><br />Richardson: 2</p><br /><p>Clinton-Obama Margin: 17<br><br /></blockquote></p><br /><p>2. <blockquote><a href="http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/2008_democratic_presidential_primary">Rasmussen, 5/07-10</a></p><br /><p>Clinton: 35%<br><br />Obama: 33<br><br />Edwards: 14<br><br />Richardson: 3</p><br /><p>Clinton-Obama Margin: 2<br><br /></blockquote></p><br /><p><b>Average</b>:</p><br /><p>Clinton: 37%<br><br />Obama: 27.5<br><br />Edwards: 16.5<br><br />Richardson: 2.5</p><br /><p>Clinton-Obama Margin: 9.5</p><br /><p></blockquote></p><br /><p><blockquote>C. Poll that asked or reported only "with Gore" question:<br><br /><blockquote><a href="http://www.galluppoll.com/content/?ci=27598">Gallup, 5/10-13</a></p><br /><p>With Gore:</p><br /><p>Clinton: 35%<br><br />Obama: 26<br><br />Gore: 16<br><br />Edwards: 12<br><br />Richardson: 2</p><br /><p>Clinton-Obama Margin: 9<br><br /></blockquote></blockquote></p><br /><p>One notes that Obama's and Gore's number in this last poll add up to 42, 7 points more than Clinton.</p><div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/6616445207343294126-2614931900110040566?l=weblogpolls.blogspot.com'/></div>NLhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03032666617375081541noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6616445207343294126.post-76011796833749442112007-05-15T05:55:00.000-07:002007-05-15T10:03:16.319-07:00Please enjoy voting in these polls for the 2008 Democratic Presidential nomination.<br /><br />The first poll has the following choices:<br />Candidate: Joe Biden<br />Candidate: Hillary Clinton<br />Candidate: Chris Dodd<br />Candidate: John Edwards<br />Candidate: Al Gore<br />Candidate: Mike Gravel<br />Candidate: Dennis Kucinich<br />Candidate: Barack Obama<br />Candidate: Bill Richardson<br />Candidate: Other<br />Candidate: Unsure<br /><a href="http://www.demochoice.org/dcballot.php?poll=MayPoll1B">Vote Now!</a><br /><br /><p>Due to my sloppiness which I apologize for, I had omitted Obama in this poll in the first version of it that I had posted. That version of the poll is <a href="http://www.demochoice.org/dcballot.php?poll=MayPoll1">here</a>.<br /><br />The Second poll has the following choices:<br />Candidate: Joe Biden<br />Candidate: Wes Clark<br />Candidate: Hillary Clinton<br />Candidate: John Edwards<br />Candidate: Al Gore<br />Candidate: Mike Gravel<br />Candidate: Dennis Kucinich<br />Candidate: Barack Obama<br />Candidate: Bill Richardson<br />Candidate: Other<br />Candidate: Unsure<br /><a href="http://www.demochoice.org/dcballot.php?poll=MayPoll2">Vote Now!</a><br /><br />These polls announced at:<br />- <a href="http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/5/15/9817/82788">Daily Kos</a><br />- <a href="http://www.mydd.com/story/2007/5/15/9228/85722">MyDD</a><br />- <a href="http://www.boomantribune.com/?op=displaystory;sid=2007/5/15/92344/0667">Booman Tribune</a><br />- <a href="http://www.myleftwing.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=16661">My Left Wing</a><br />- <a href="http://www.dailykos.com/comments/2007/5/15/92341/4081/22#c22">DKos comment</a><br />- <a href="http://www.mydd.com/comments/2007/5/15/65633/7309/15#15">myDD comment</a><br />- <a href="http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/5/15/12295/5467#42">DKos comment</a><br />Please send me an <a href="mailto:neuvoliberal@yahoo.com">email</a> if you'd like to post articles and/or create polls at the WLP blog.<div class="blogger-post-footer"><img width='1' height='1' src='https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/6616445207343294126-7601179683374944211?l=weblogpolls.blogspot.com'/></div>NLhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03032666617375081541noreply@blogger.com0