Saturday, May 19, 2007

With and Without Gore 2008 poll numbers

Some calculations based on the 2008 polls published thus far (from RCP) are below the fold.


Crossposted at Daily Kos.



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A) Polls that asked both the "with Gore" and "without Gore" questions:


1.

FNOD, 5/15-16


With Gore:


Clinton: 35%

Obama: 20

Gore: 13

Edwards: 13

Richardson: 4


Clinton-Obama Margin: 15


Without Gore (with shifts in parentheses):


Clinton: 39% (+4)

Obama: 23 (+3)

Edwards: 15 (+2)

Richardson: 4 (0)


Clinton-Obama Margin: 16


Interesting "without Clinton" results:

Obama: 34 (+14)

Gore: 23 (+10)

Edwards: 16 (+3)

Richardson: 5 (+1)

(which shows that Obama and Gore have the best capacity to pull support from Hillary)


2.

Cook/RT, 5/11-13:


With Gore:


Clinton: 32%

Obama: 24

Gore: 10

Edwards: 13

Richardson: 3


Clinton-Obama Margin: 8


Without Gore (with shifts in parentheses):


Clinton: 40% (+8)

Obama: 25 (+1)

Edwards: 13 (0)

Richardson: 2 (-1)


Clinton-Obama Margin: 15


3.

CNN/OR 5/4-6

With Gore:


Clinton: 38%

Obama: 24

Gore: 12

Edwards: 12

Richardson: 5


Clinton-Obama Margin: 14


Without Gore (with shifts in parentheses):


Clinton: 41% (+3)

Obama: 27 (+3)

Edwards: 14 (+2)

Richardson: 6 (+1)


Clinton-Obama Margin: 14


4.



USA Today


With Gore:


Clinton: 38%

Obama: 23

Gore: 14

Edwards: 12

Richardson: 2


Clinton-Obama Margin: 15


Without Gore (with shifts in parentheses):


Clinton: 45% (+7)

Obama: 27 (+4)

Edwards: 14 (+2)

Richardson: 3 (+1)


Clinton-Obama Margin: 18


Averages:


With Gore:


Clinton: 35.75%

Obama: 22.75

Gore: 12.25

Edwards: 12.5

Richardson: 3.5


Clinton-Obama Margin: 13

Also, Obama+Gore = 35%


Without Gore (with shifts in parentheses):


Clinton: 41.25% (+5.5)

Obama: 27 (+2.75)

Edwards: 14 (+1.5)

Richardson: 3 (+0.25)


Clinton-Obama Margin: 14.25





B. Polls that asked or reported only the "without Gore" question:


1.

ARG, 5/9-12


Clinton: 39%

Obama: 22

Edwards: 19

Richardson: 2


Clinton-Obama Margin: 17


2.

Rasmussen, 5/07-10


Clinton: 35%

Obama: 33

Edwards: 14

Richardson: 3


Clinton-Obama Margin: 2


Average:


Clinton: 37%

Obama: 27.5

Edwards: 16.5

Richardson: 2.5


Clinton-Obama Margin: 9.5



C. Poll that asked or reported only "with Gore" question:

Gallup, 5/10-13


With Gore:


Clinton: 35%

Obama: 26

Gore: 16

Edwards: 12

Richardson: 2


Clinton-Obama Margin: 9


One notes that Obama's and Gore's number in this last poll add up to 42, 7 points more than Clinton.

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