Saturday, May 19, 2007

With and Without Gore 2008 poll numbers

Some calculations based on the 2008 polls published thus far (from RCP) are below the fold.


Crossposted at Daily Kos.



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A) Polls that asked both the "with Gore" and "without Gore" questions:


1.

FNOD, 5/15-16


With Gore:


Clinton: 35%

Obama: 20

Gore: 13

Edwards: 13

Richardson: 4


Clinton-Obama Margin: 15


Without Gore (with shifts in parentheses):


Clinton: 39% (+4)

Obama: 23 (+3)

Edwards: 15 (+2)

Richardson: 4 (0)


Clinton-Obama Margin: 16


Interesting "without Clinton" results:

Obama: 34 (+14)

Gore: 23 (+10)

Edwards: 16 (+3)

Richardson: 5 (+1)

(which shows that Obama and Gore have the best capacity to pull support from Hillary)


2.

Cook/RT, 5/11-13:


With Gore:


Clinton: 32%

Obama: 24

Gore: 10

Edwards: 13

Richardson: 3


Clinton-Obama Margin: 8


Without Gore (with shifts in parentheses):


Clinton: 40% (+8)

Obama: 25 (+1)

Edwards: 13 (0)

Richardson: 2 (-1)


Clinton-Obama Margin: 15


3.

CNN/OR 5/4-6

With Gore:


Clinton: 38%

Obama: 24

Gore: 12

Edwards: 12

Richardson: 5


Clinton-Obama Margin: 14


Without Gore (with shifts in parentheses):


Clinton: 41% (+3)

Obama: 27 (+3)

Edwards: 14 (+2)

Richardson: 6 (+1)


Clinton-Obama Margin: 14


4.



USA Today


With Gore:


Clinton: 38%

Obama: 23

Gore: 14

Edwards: 12

Richardson: 2


Clinton-Obama Margin: 15


Without Gore (with shifts in parentheses):


Clinton: 45% (+7)

Obama: 27 (+4)

Edwards: 14 (+2)

Richardson: 3 (+1)


Clinton-Obama Margin: 18


Averages:


With Gore:


Clinton: 35.75%

Obama: 22.75

Gore: 12.25

Edwards: 12.5

Richardson: 3.5


Clinton-Obama Margin: 13

Also, Obama+Gore = 35%


Without Gore (with shifts in parentheses):


Clinton: 41.25% (+5.5)

Obama: 27 (+2.75)

Edwards: 14 (+1.5)

Richardson: 3 (+0.25)


Clinton-Obama Margin: 14.25





B. Polls that asked or reported only the "without Gore" question:


1.

ARG, 5/9-12


Clinton: 39%

Obama: 22

Edwards: 19

Richardson: 2


Clinton-Obama Margin: 17


2.

Rasmussen, 5/07-10


Clinton: 35%

Obama: 33

Edwards: 14

Richardson: 3


Clinton-Obama Margin: 2


Average:


Clinton: 37%

Obama: 27.5

Edwards: 16.5

Richardson: 2.5


Clinton-Obama Margin: 9.5



C. Poll that asked or reported only "with Gore" question:

Gallup, 5/10-13


With Gore:


Clinton: 35%

Obama: 26

Gore: 16

Edwards: 12

Richardson: 2


Clinton-Obama Margin: 9


One notes that Obama's and Gore's number in this last poll add up to 42, 7 points more than Clinton.

Tuesday, May 15, 2007

May Blogosphere Straw Polls

Please enjoy voting in these polls for the 2008 Democratic Presidential nomination.

The first poll has the following choices:
Candidate: Joe Biden
Candidate: Hillary Clinton
Candidate: Chris Dodd
Candidate: John Edwards
Candidate: Al Gore
Candidate: Mike Gravel
Candidate: Dennis Kucinich
Candidate: Barack Obama
Candidate: Bill Richardson
Candidate: Other
Candidate: Unsure
Vote Now!

Due to my sloppiness which I apologize for, I had omitted Obama in this poll in the first version of it that I had posted. That version of the poll is here.

The Second poll has the following choices:
Candidate: Joe Biden
Candidate: Wes Clark
Candidate: Hillary Clinton
Candidate: John Edwards
Candidate: Al Gore
Candidate: Mike Gravel
Candidate: Dennis Kucinich
Candidate: Barack Obama
Candidate: Bill Richardson
Candidate: Other
Candidate: Unsure
Vote Now!

These polls announced at:
- Daily Kos
- MyDD
- Booman Tribune
- My Left Wing
- DKos comment
- myDD comment
- DKos comment
Please send me an email if you'd like to post articles and/or create polls at the WLP blog.